Climate change and civil conflict in Africa: understanding the interconnections
O.M.C. Osazuwa , City University, Cambodia Maryjane Y. Oghogho , PhD Student, City University, Cambodia Alfred A. Mboto , Ph.D. Student, City University, Cambodia Godwin P. Onogwu , Ph.D. Student, City University, Cambodia Okwudia Gogogwute , Ph.D. Student, City University, CambodiaAbstract
Climate change is a major catalyst for socio-political instability, especially in Africa, where reliance on natural resources for sustenance and economic endeavours is substantial. This study investigates the intricate relationship between climate change and civil strife, emphasising how environmental stress intensifies socio-economic inequalities and incites hostilities. The research seeks to elucidate the mechanisms connecting climate change to conflict and to provide ways for mitigating these effects while enhancing resilience in impacted communities. The study employs a qualitative methodology, utilising secondary sources including peer-reviewed articles, policy reports, and empirical case studies. The Environmental Scarcity Theory and Relative Deprivation Theory offer an analytical framework that demonstrates how resource scarcity and socio-political grievances lead to conflict. The data concentrates on areas such as the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, where the effects of climate change are most pronounced. Thematic and comparative analyses are utilised to merge theoretical viewpoints with practical examples. The research indicates that climate change aggravates resource shortage, especially regarding water and arable land, heightening confrontations between competing factions such as farmers and herders. Environmental displacement burdens host communities, exacerbating tensions frequently manipulated by rebel factions. Inadequate governance and institutional inefficiencies exacerbate vulnerabilities, while climate-induced economic disruptions disproportionately impact agriculture- dependent populations. The results substantiate that climate change considerably affects civil violence in Africa. Addressing this nexus necessitates a multifaceted strategy, encompassing the enhancement of governance, the promotion of sustainable livelihoods, and the encouragement of community-based resource management. Recommendations encompass the augmentation of climate adaptation strategies, the implementation of early warning systems, and the procurement of international assistance for at-risk areas. A coordinated, region-specific strategy is crucial for risk mitigation and the promotion of enduring socio-political stability.
Keywords
Climate change, civil conflict, resource scarcity
References
Abu Hatab, A., López-i-Gelats, F., Cellura, M., & El Bilali, H. (2024). Contributions of the WEFE nexus to sustainability. DIVA Portal. Retrieved from https://www.diva- portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2:1915619
Ackah-Arthur, J. (2023). The state, non-state actors, and populations: Security responses to insurgent attacks in Sub-Saharan Africa. LSE Theses Online. Retrieved from https://etheses.lse.ac.uk/4635/
Adam, A. M., Giller, K. E., & Rusinamhodzi, L. (2025). Enhancing the resilience of intercropping systems to changing moisture conditions in Africa through the integration of grain legumes: A meta-analysis. Field Crops Research. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378429024004167.
Akinyetun, T. S., & Ogunbodede, N. E. (2023). Conflict weather: Climate change as a driver of pastoralist conflicts in the Lake Chad region. Jurnal Politik. Retrieved from https://scholarhub.ui.ac.id/politik.
Akinyetun, T. S., Fatai-Abatan, A., & Bello, S. (2024). Heated Environment, Armed People: Between "Climate Change Conflict" and "Fragility Conflict" in the Sahel. Journal of Asian and African Studies. Retrieved from https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/00219096241285108.
Akram, W., Hussain, Z., & Adeel, S. (2024). Water and Food Security in the Middle Eastern and NorthernAfrican Countries. Springer. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378546083
Aragie, T. A. (2024). Regional Economic Communities and Peace Building in Africa: Lessons from ECOWAS and IGAD. The African Review. Retrieved from https://brill.com/view/journals/tare/aop/article-10.1163-1821889x-bja10134/article- 10.1163-1821889x-bja10134.xml
Babatunde, A. O., & Ibnouf, F. O. (2024). The dynamics of herder-farmer conflicts in Plateau State, Nigeria, and Central Darfur State, Sudan. African Studies Review. Retrieved from https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/african-studies-review.
Basedau, M., & Deitch, M. (2022). Rebels with a cause: Does ideology make armed conflicts longer and bloodier? Journal of Conflict Resolution. Retrieved from https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/00220027221108222
Baylouny, A. (2024). The Dynamics of Insurgent Movements. Springer.
Bedasa, Y., & Deksisa, K. (2024). Food insecurity in East Africa: An integrated strategy to address climate change impact and violence conflict. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666154324000152.
Berti, B. (2018). Violent and criminal non-state actors. Oxford Handbook of Governance and Limited Statehood.
Busby, J., Eklöw, K., & Krampe, F. (2022). Security risks of environmental crises: Environment of peace. OceanRep Geomar. Retrieved from https://oceanrep.geomar.de.
Carlson, J. (2024). Solving the “small outbreak problem” in climate epidemiology. doi:10.32942/x2v024
Chigudu, H. (2024). Peace and security, health and climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Law and Sustainable Development. doi:10.55908/sdgs.v12i6.3628
Clément, M., Geis, A., & Pfeifer, H. (2021). Recognising armed non-state actors: Risks and opportunities for conflict transformation. Manchester University Press.
Cornelius, K. G. (2024). Aspirations for equity and excellence: A policy trajectory exploration.
ResearchGate. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/385509649
Depetris-Chauvín, E., & Özak, Ö. (2020). Borderline disorder: (De facto) historical ethnic borders and contemporary conflict in Africa. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3541025
Duba, S. G. (2024). Assessing response disconnects in cascading climate change impacts and stressors in northern Kenya. CGSpace. Retrieved from https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstreams/c4012eda-d973-4ef8-a058-c47df4e35e6f/download.
Ehiane, A., & Moyo, T. (2021). Climate change, human insecurity and conflict dynamics in the Lake Chad region. Journal of Asian and African Studies. doi:10.1177/00219096211063817
Ehiane, S., & Moyo, P. (2022). Climate change, human insecurity and conflict dynamics in the Lake Chad region. Journal of Asian and African Studies. Retrieved from https://journals.sagepub.com/
Fonjong, L., & Wanki, J. E. (2024). The food security crisis in the Lake Chad Basin: NGOs’ response to the climate-security nexus. The Journal of Environment & Development. Retrieved from https://journals.sagepub.com.
Furceri, D., Pizzuto, P., & Yarveisi, K. (2024). The effect of pandemic crises on fertility. Journal of Population Economics. Retrieved from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-024-00983-3
Garfinkel, M. (2021). The climate conflict trap: Examining the impact of climate change on violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Flux International Relations Review. doi:10.26443/firr.v11i2.72
Hampson, F. O., Özerdem, A., & Kent, J. (2020). Routledge Handbook of Peace, Security, and Development. Taylor & Francis.
Hänsel, S. (2023). Regional climate variability. Retrieved from https://tubaf.qucosa.de/id/qucosa:89032
Hendrix, C. S., Koubi, V., Selby, J., Siddiqi, A., & Uexküll, N. v. (2023). Climate change and conflict. Nature Reviews Earth &Amp; Environment, 4(3), 144-148. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00382-w
Hofmann, C., & Saul, B. (2016). Humanitarian engagement with non-state armed groups. Chatham House.
Hrynick, T. (2024). Key Considerations for Responding to Floods in South Sudan Through the Humanitarian-Peace-Development Nexus. OpenDocs. Retrieved from https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/articles/report/26435752
Ignatiev, R., & Fediushin, V. (2024). Anthropology Across Borders and Limits: 1st Independent Research Network Papers. Retrieved from https://books.google.com/books?id=TDX6EAAAQBAJ
Kenee, F. (2022). Pastoralists and violent conflict along the Oromia–Somali border in Eastern Ethiopia: Institutional options toward peacebuilding. *African Studies Review*, doi:10.1017/asr.2021.89.
Koubi, V., Nguyễn, Q., Spilker, G., & Böhmelt, T. (2020). Environmental migrants and social- movement participation. Journal of Peace Research, 58(1), 18-32. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343320972153
Kurebwa, J., & Kurebwa, N. Y. (2025). Climate change and household food security. IGI Global. Retrieved from https://www.igi-global.com/chapter/climate-change-and-household-food- security/363184.
Kwame, A., et al. (2022). The threats of climate change on water and food security in South Africa.
American Journal of Environment and Climate. doi:10.54536/ajec.v1i2.568
Kwanhi, T., Modiba, F. S., Mago, S., & Matindike, S. (2024). Conceptualizing climate-induced migration in Africa. Environmental Science and Policy. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211464524000873 .
Ludvík, Z. (2023). Violent non-state actors: The politics of territorial governance. Springer.
MacLeod, A., Hofmann, C., Saul, B., & Hogg, J. (2016). Engaging non-state armed groups.
Chatham House Report.
Mahlakeng, T. (2023). Homer-Dixon's environmental scarcity theory and regime theory. doi:10.4324/9781003366379-2.
Moyo, M. M. (2024). Pastoralist conflict in Ethiopia from 2015 to 2022: Climate change and food insecurity as exacerbating factors. ProQuest Dissertations. Retrieved from https://search.proquest.com/openview/542297bfac45fdee2e9ad9ff55269875/1.
Muhammed, G. Y. (2023). Migration and Trans-Border Crimes in the Sahel Region. YAJAMSS. Retrieved from http://yajamss.com.ng/index.php/yajamss/article/view/89
Müller, T. R. (2021). Interviews with Ethiopian and Eritrean migrants in Nairobi and Khartoum, interviews with Eritrean migrants in Addis Ababa, 2020–2021. Reshare. Retrieved from https://reshare.ukdataservice.ac.uk/id/eprint/857255
Mvile, B. N., & Bishoge, O. K. (2024). Mining and Sustainable Development Goals in Africa. Resources Policy. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420724000771
Nasser, L. (2024). A system justification approach to predicting collective action. Ryerson University. Retrieved from https://rshare.library.torontomu.ca
Njoki, F. W. (2023). Environmental stress and conflicts in the Sahel region: A case study of Mali.
University of Nairobi Repository. Retrieved from https://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke .
Odeyemi, A. (2021). Conceptualising climate‐riskification for analysing climate security.
International Social Science Journal*, doi:10.1111/issj.12270.
Ojakorotu, V., & Erameh, N. I. (2024). Africa's engagement with the responsibility to protect in the 21st century. Springer. Retrieved from https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-981-99-8163-2.pdf
Okoliko, D. A., & de Wit, M. P. (2024). Analysing climate change communication in African countries: Scales, frames, and claims-makers in media from South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya. Environmental Communication. Retrieved from https://books.google.com/books?id=mrI0EQAAQBAJ.
Okoyeuzu, C. R., Ujunwa, A. I., & Ujunwa, A. (2024). Interactive effects of armed conflict and climate change on gender vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Social Economics. Retrieved from https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJSE-09-2022-0595/full/html .
Otundo Richard, M. (2024). Navigating climate change and environmental degradation in conflict- affected regions of Africa: Implications for sustainable development and peacebuilding. SSRN. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/
Podder, S. (2024). Non-state armed groups and stability: Reconsidering legitimacy and inclusion.
Contemporary Security Policy.
Ramirez, C. (2024). The role of non-state actors in conflict resolution: A comparative analysis.
Studies in Social Science & Humanities.
Regehr, E. (2021). Armed conflict: Trends and drivers. Simons Foundation Report.
Salako, K. V., & Dimobe, K. (2024). Potential impacts of future climate on twelve key multipurpose tree species in Benin: Insights from species distribution modeling for biodiversity conservation. Trees, Forests and People. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666719324002504.
Scheffran, J., Link, P. M., & Schilling, J. (2024). Climate and conflict in Africa. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/
Sharifi, A., Candelaria, J. L., & Simangan, D. (2024). Navigating peace and sustainability in an increasingly complex world. Springer. Retrieved from https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-97-8772-2_1
Silander, J. (2021). The UN Agenda 2030 and the climate-security nexus in Africa. Journal of Geography Politics and Society. doi:10.26881/jpgs.2021.2.04
Singh, A. K., & Aparna. (2024). Climate change and maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region: A strategic approach. Springer. Retrieved from https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-97-1685-2_8
Steel, D., DesRoches, C. T., & Mintz‐Woo, K. (2022). Climate change and the threat to civilization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(42). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210525119
Sudira, I. N., Pamungkas, C., & Adulsyah, F. (2021). Pembangunan, marginalisasi, dan disintegrasi Papua. TIFA Foundation. Retrieved from https://www.tifafoundation.id
Troise, C., Bigliardi, B., & Corvello, V. (2025). Examining the influence of entrepreneurial ecosystem pressure on the economic, social, and environmental orientation of startups. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016252400698X
von Braun, M., Bartrem, C., & von Lindern, I. (2022). Climate change, conflict, and resource extraction: Analyses of Nigerian artisanal mining communities and ominous global trends. Annals of Global Health. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/
Walker, C. D. B. (2024). Whither Now and Why: Blackness and critical thinking. Religious Studies Review. Retrieved from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/rsr.17063
Waongo, M., Laux, P., Coulibaly, A., & Sy, S. (2024). Assessing the impacts of climate change on rainfed maize production in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Atmosphere. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/386246129.
Waty, R. R., Mirza, I. M., & Fadli, N. M. (2022). Separatism movement and contemporary reconciliation: Causes and its impact. Jurnal Studi Sosial dan Politik. Retrieved from https://jurnal.radenfatah.ac.id
Xu, H. (2023). Counter-globalization changes and China's response in the perspective of global history. Elibrary. Retrieved from https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=65506029
Xu, Y., et al. (2020). Future of the human climate niche. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi:10.1073/pnas.1910114117
Article Statistics
Downloads
Copyright License
Copyright (c) 2025 O.M.C. Osazuwa, Maryjane Y. Oghogho, Alfred A. Mboto, Godwin P. Onogwu, Okwudia Gogogwute

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors retain the copyright of their manuscripts, and all Open Access articles are disseminated under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC-BY), which licenses unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is appropriately cited. The use of general descriptive names, trade names, trademarks, and so forth in this publication, even if not specifically identified, does not imply that these names are not protected by the relevant laws and regulations.