Management and Economics
| Open Access |
DOI: Modeling and Forecasting the Main Indicators of The Textile Industry in Uzbekistan
Madrakhimova Gulasal Ruzimboy qizi , Dean of the Faculty of Economics, Tashkent Institute of Textile and Light Industry (TTYSI), Doctor of Economics (DSc), Associate Professor, UzbekistanAbstract
The textile industry is one of the strategic sectors of Uzbekistan’s economy, contributing significantly to industrial output, employment generation, export revenues, and economic diversification. This study aims to model and forecast the main indicators of the textile industry using econometric methods based on official statistical data for 2010–2023. A multifactor econometric regression model was developed to determine the impact of investments, fixed assets, and employment on textile production volume. Correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, exponential trend models, and ARIMA models were applied to analyze relationships among variables and forecast future trends. The empirical findings indicate that investments, fixed assets, and labor resources significantly affect textile industry output. Forecast results show that by 2030 textile production volume may reach 9,874.7 million USD, investments 2,941.7 million USD, fixed assets 8,661.3 million USD, and employment 415.9 thousand people. The study concludes that sustainable development of the textile industry requires increasing investment efficiency, improving technological integration, modernizing industrial infrastructure, and enhancing production capacities. The findings can serve as an analytical basis for strategic industrial policy and investment decision-making in Uzbekistan.
Keywords
Textile industry, econometric modeling, forecasting
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