Volatility Clustering and Market Sentiment: A Quantitative Assessment of Bitcoin and Ethereum's Reaction to Macroeconomic Announcements.
Abstract
This article investigates the phenomenon of volatility clustering in the cryptocurrency markets, focusing on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), through empirical time-series analysis. The study employs quantitative methods, including GARCH modeling, to identify persistent patterns in the price fluctuations of the two leading digital assets. The analysis is based on trading data over an extended period, encompassing both phases of high market turbulence and periods of relative stability. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach that integrates behavioral finance, econometrics, and financial market theory, particular attention is given to identifying autocorrelation, memory effects, and the structure of market shocks. The findings demonstrate that volatility clustering in BTC and ETH significantly differs from similar phenomena in traditional financial markets, largely due to their speculative nature, asset novelty, and the influence of both institutional and retail participants. The identified patterns enhance risk profiling for crypto assets and may be applied in hedging strategies, automated trading algorithm development, and investment portfolio optimization. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of accounting for both micro- and macroeconomic factors influencing market behavior. The article is intended for researchers in digital finance, risk managers, analysts, investors, and anyone examining unstable assets in conditions of high uncertainty and a rapidly changing informational landscape.
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References
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