Articles
| Open Access | AI-Driven Propensity Prediction and Decision Engine Framework for Financial Market Forecasting and Customer Behavior Analytics
Siti Rahmawati Nugroho , Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, IPB University (Bogor Agricultural University), Bogor, IndonesiaAbstract
The rapid evolution of financial markets and the proliferation of digital financial services have significantly increased the volume and complexity of data generated by investors, institutions, and customers. This transformation has created a critical need for intelligent analytical systems capable of interpreting complex financial signals and customer behavior patterns. Artificial intelligence and machine learning have emerged as powerful tools for addressing this challenge, particularly in the areas of stock market forecasting, risk management, and customer propensity prediction. This research develops a comprehensive conceptual framework for integrating machine learning-based propensity prediction models with decision engine architectures to improve forecasting accuracy and financial decision-making. The study synthesizes insights from financial time-series forecasting, machine learning algorithms, big data analytics, and behavioral finance to construct an advanced predictive decision support system suitable for modern financial institutions.
The research examines multiple predictive techniques including artificial neural networks, support vector machines, hybrid ARIMA models, and rule-based analytical systems that have historically been applied to financial forecasting. Additionally, the study explores the integration of customer-level data analytics with market-level financial indicators to develop decision engines capable of predicting both market movement and investor behavior. Particular attention is given to the role of feature engineering, data preparation, and hybrid modeling strategies in improving predictive accuracy. The study further discusses the importance of fairness, transparency, and ethical considerations in the deployment of machine learning models within financial decision-making processes.
The proposed framework combines predictive modeling techniques with automated decision engines to enable financial institutions to derive actionable insights from complex datasets. The results indicate that hybrid machine learning approaches combined with intelligent decision engines can significantly enhance forecasting reliability and enable proactive financial strategies. The research contributes to the growing body of literature on financial artificial intelligence by providing a comprehensive theoretical model that integrates financial time-series forecasting with customer propensity analytics.
Keywords
Propensity Prediction, Decision Engine, Financial Forecasting, Machine Learning in Finance
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